the decline in the growth rate of new construction area, the core reason is the development of the geographical radius of the recession, the development of enterprises can no longer be unable to sink four lines of the following cities, and a lot of urban housing supply is too large.
2015 full year, the national real estate development investment reached 95979 yuan, an increase of 1%, the growth rate down 0.3 percentage points over the previous 11 months. december 2015 one month, real estate development investment growth fell 1.9 percentage points. although investment in real estate development gearreductions last month has slowed, but still continued negative growth.
the first indicator of the development of investment is the new housing construction area. 2015, real estate development enterprise housing new construction area of 15.4 square meters, down 14%. this is the new construction area of the chinese market for second consecutive years fell, and the decline in new construction area than in 2014 as the expansion. housing new construction area, is the most important construction area of housing and real estate development investment leading indicators. for two consecutive years, the decline in the area of new housing construction, the future of housing construction is difficult to continue to grow in the future. 2015, the national housing construction area of 73.6 square meters, an increase of 1.3%. if the construction area is difficult to continue to grow, investment in real estate development is difficult to continue to grow.
so, one day, will there be a new area of growth? we think it's hard to get there. since 2014, the decline in the area of new construction, the nature is completely different from the beginning of the new start of the stall. this is not because of the tightening of monetary policy, or the regulation of the industry increased, the development of enterprises to control the development progress. relax policy, sales improved, are not enough to push the new construction area turned up. the new construction area growth declined, the core reason is the development of geographic radius recession (development enterprises no longer able to sink the following four tier cities, but in general contraction regional business), and many urban housing supply is too large.
therefore, we judge that the supply side of the supply side of the permanent history of china's new house development or have reached the top of the.
2015 full year, the national commercial housing sales area of 12.9 square meters, 8.7 yuan of commercial housing sales, respectively, an increase of 6.9% and 14.4%. national commercial housing sales growth faster than the sales area growth, mainly because of a second tier cities accounted for an increase in sales.
december 2015 national real estate sales area and sales increased by the ratio decreased in november 2015, which may be related to the change in the base in december 2014. in fact, december 2015 sales did not significantly reduce speed, we recommend investors do not have to be over interpretation of this.
outlook 2016, low mortgage interest rates and relatively relaxed policy environment, is expected to have the ability to hold the pace of sales. however, the growth in sales of resources has been weak, the vast majority of the number of enterprises operating in the city is difficult to continue to grow. we believe that the 2016 sales volume growth is limited. it is worth pointing out that the industrial policy has evolved from an exogenous factor to an endogenous factor. we can't expect policy to promote the 2016 years of rapid sales growth, because once the signs of the rapid growth of sales, the policy can not continue to force. of course, due to the policy space is very large, so we also believe that the sale of commercial housing and will not be a problem.
we focus on the size of the construction area of urban land transfer has been less than the size of the city's commercial housing sales area. from the three quarter of 2014, we focus on the scale of the city's stock began to appear a net decline. however, sales growth is limited, the transfer of land will not quickly shrink, the inventory of the need for a long time to change itself.
moreover, this inventory to change is structural. in 2015, there are 6 cities in hefei, there is a net increase in inventory. 15 data integrity of the city, only shenzhen, guangzhou and shanghai in recent years, a large inventory of large scale. dalian is still such a city, although there is a net inventory of the stock, but since 2010 has been a huge accumulation of inventory.
this article source: citic securities: real estate industry in 2015 data reviews
