policy overweight to conduction to the economic recovery, real estate is a key ring, especially since the second quarter as "steady growth" an important starting point for investment in infrastructure, is even more so.
although the management requires that banks are not allowed to financing platform "pumping the loan, but the constraints of local financing platform" no. 43, "can not be a breakthrough, bank loans difficult to continue to support; at the same time, the local bond replacement although" ice breaking ", but in the short-term inner scale is still difficult to meet the infrastructure funding needs. to this end, the active fiscal policy in april, a significant force, the public budget spending rose 31.6% month.
however, in 2014 the general public revenue 8.6% of the "single digit" growth, hit multi-year low; the first four months of this year, the public budget revenue growth year-on-year decline 6.3 percentage points, and the general budget spending rose 13.8 per; 33.2% in the month of april, the fiscal expenditure growth and revenue growth of only 8.2%. local level revenue growth rate of decline is greater, where the fund's income (mainly land transfer revenue) fell 37%.
based on this, in corporate earnings slowdown, "structural tax cuts", local revenue decline in the background to complete this year more than 25% of infrastructure investment growth target, alone because of financial investment is not realistic.
in the first quarter gdp growth rate of 7% a six-year low, but real estate if "inventory" and stabilized, on the one hand can drive the downstream industry, stop making investment industry downturn, on the other hand, but also to sell the land to support investment in infrastructure. based on this consideration, the 30 - 3 new home loan is expected, it is not difficult to explain. since the implementation of the "3 - 30" of the new deal, sales stabilized trend more obvious -- 1 ~ 4 months, the national commercial housing sales area of annual urban disposal million square meters, representing a decrease of 4.8%, a decline of more than 1 month narrowed sharply 4.4 percentage points. but it should also be noted, due to inventory pressure 234 lines city does not rise significantly, developers "leverage" will is very low, four months before the land acquisition, new construction fell 32.7%, 17.3%, did not decline narrowed.
even 5 a month before the sale of the property market decline narrowed, but a significant change is first-line and second-line in major cities housing prices began to rise rapidly, shenzhen and shanghai strong rise of 2.68% and 2.32%, investment demand began a resurgence; private capital accumulation is more thick in the yangtze river delta, pearl river delta and beijing tianjin hebei property market to stabilize the bottom. and greater pressure on the stock of northeast china and other places, not only economic growth in the "bottom" and weakness of the property market to change: for example, harbin, shenyang, dalian inventory 2 to 3 years to digest.
even if the loose policy environment remains unchanged, not to developers "leverage" optimistic view because the inventory statistics is only in the sale of stock, if in the sale, in the construction, which have been approved but not yet built three large inventory count, around the inventory, also need longer time to digest.
from 4~5 months of the property market performance, the regional differentiation, supply and demand mismatch problem is serious, and the subject of digest inventory deviation, and the focus of the city appeared similar to the stock market, the negative issue of real. in addition, the stability of the property market policy (including monetary policy), in many places have been alienated to go back to the property market dependent on the old road, wasted transition window period".
in view of this phenomenon, people's daily recently on the front page: the titled "face up to difficulties, maintain concentration, a bright future" review article, pointed out that "any initiative to adapt to the new normal, focusing on structural adjustment, innovation driven, quality and efficiency, efforts to high-end industries, the development momentum is good; on the contrary, the pressure is relatively large." the implication that depends on the national policy, the marginal effect weakened, not practical, it may cause a new round of market dependence, damage to the future transformation.
it is in this context, the local must take the initiative to assume the main responsibility, the property market to inventory and new urbanization, industrial restructuring together. investment, especially investment in infrastructure, needs to support the stability of the real estate market, but never in the past city "shop booth", "city" style real estate expansion and passive inefficient urban investment, but under the background of the new town, the population agglomeration, a virtuous cycle of industrial development and the provision of public services.
such real estate development not only needs support, but also to support infrastructure investment and investment in fixed assets, in turn, will boost the industry and population concentration, and strengthen the real estate market, the two virtuous circle formed.
the next step of the property market policy will be subject to local responsibility, as the main feature of the initiative. recently, anhui, gansu, tianjin and other provinces and cities have introduced a package of measures to the local property market stable, the biggest feature is to reduce the purchase cost, enhance the city foreign population and the agricultural population adsorption capacity, which is perhaps begin to place on the long-term mechanism of the property market as the initiative.
